why there will be no deflation.

At least where it counts.


Aside from the fact that there will be a Trigger Event which causes suspension of all access to banking, trading accounts, and other business repositories with equity balances under a declared condition of Martial Law; in the event that such does not occur, there still will be no deflation.


What will deflate is garbage; the crap nobody needs or wants, IE junk goods.


The deflation-hyperinflation was BS'ed to death here about 3.5 years ago. The hyper-tiger showed what minimal grasp he had of economics on those threads. Maybe they remain archived? Not like it matters much.


The deal about deflation is nobody has ever really experienced it in a fiat money system. How can paper, backed with nothing, actually appreciate? It can't! Yet, the arguments continue to be made and rationalized.


In America, most consumer goods and in fact, almost everything we are able to buy is now made abroad and transported to this shore. Worldwide, there is an energy and especially fuel shortage. Not many ships are powered by coal any longer, so shipping/importing is all subject to ever increasing fuel costs. Fuels will not be getting more affordable in terms of dolllar pricing, so all imports will increase in cost, unless dumped at severe consequence by the seller and/or importer. Junk goods, (non-essentials) will likely be dumped. Essentials will not.

Many confuse a seller willing to take less for goods with deflation. These are not synonomous. There may be goods that must be sold at any price or they spoil/expire. Buyers will squeeze sellers as fully as possible, but buyers don't want expired goods anymore than sellers want to get stuck holding them. Look for items with markdowns and substantially reduced costs to no longer be as desirable to the consumer, but need can mandate the purchase anyway. Quality merchandise will not be sold at severe discount.

Just in time inventories mean that retailers have small exposure to markdown loss. A firm doing $10M in business may only have $500K of inventory if they have fantastic turnover. Retailers selling at severe markdown have no need to continue their enterprise due to increasing costs to acquire goods (imported goods are rising in expense due to transport and dollar exchange devaluation).

When have you ever seen Good Quality Merchandise sell at distressed levels?
There is ALWAYS demand for GQM for the value it represents. Staple Merchandise, products people require for living are not going to deflate, if anything they will rise due to competition from buyers for scarce products and resources.

Virtually every usable tool and device to enable self-sufficiency will rise in value and price. Papermoney may not be a viable medium of exchange for these goods.

There are bubbles which have greatly inflated some aspect of the economy. Credit is largely responsible for this. Yet, credit is collapsing as I type this. Most credit availability has been removed from the system already. Those who have made their living borrowing to buy, selling cheap goods or superfluous goods are in for a rough time.

The deflationary viewpoint has always presumed that holders of vital goods would sell their goods at severe discount to service their debt. Such is not true. Any wholesale supplier can tell you that they have no right to recourse for recovery of their merchandise from a debtor. They risk loss of merchandise unless their buyers payup; never much left for supplier-creditors in any bankruptcy proceeding, everybody else gets paid from the sale of your merchandise.

What does the term "flight to quality" mean? No, we're not talking about buying paper, not even T-Bills or Govt Bonds. Quality merchandise will be sought after, competed for by those still holding dollars. Sellers will maximize profits in an unusual market, ancillary junk will be moved to allow more quality mdse to replace it; at least as long as there is any stabilty and product to buy in-country, and delivery for the goods available.

Tract houses in ticky-tacky subdivisions will devalue. Homestead-Survivalist properties will soar in price. Value is where it is under changing conditions.

Money will decline in utility when there is no supply chain. Once mdse stocks in-country are depleted, that may be all she wrote.

Thinking that you are going to scoop up "bargains" becaus cash is king in a deflationary environment will be a FATAL ERROR. Those with essential and quality goods will be king. Those who did not see the writing on the wall and prepare long befoe are behind the 8-ball. Junk is always known to be shoddy. It is bought with the idea that, "When this wears out, I'll get another; maybe even cheaper." When persons realize they may have to wait months or years to resupply, they will pay for the best they can get.

America has been wrecked by deliberate design. Actual costs of exporting all production hidden by EZ Credit and manipulated fuel prices. All that made America a juggernaut of production is gone. None of this is buy accident, which is why a Trigger Event will occur and cause capitulation or cessation of the Nation itself. That is the plan, after looting all deposits and funds.

While you still have time, while you can still buy quality goods and preparedness items, I encourage you to take action. Food, water purification gear, defensive weapons and other self-sufficiency items will be a Godsend to you and your family; if you exercise the foresight to prepare and not believe the deflation lie. There will be no deflation on goods you will want to buy, but if you wait to supply your family you will pay premium if you can buy the goods you want at all.

Gresham's Law is applicable to any situation. When cheaper goods enter a market to fill the void of quality goods, the cheaper goods will command the same price. Compare a Peace Dollar to a Susan B. Anthony and see if that isn't so.

Before your money loses its acceptance, use it. Money is a tool. Fiat money is no store of wealth as many will soon learn.